How Safe are we from a Nuclear Explosion?

Since the deployment of the first nuclear weapons in 1945, there has always been the threat of being obliterated by one in an instant, with no warning or chance to respond. This threat led to such high tensions around the globe that they caused the cold war and extreme stockpiling of nuclear weapons.

Elders in our society still remember the nuclear drills and contingencies put in place during this time of tension. However, it can also be argued that the advent nuclear weapons have also ushered in an era of world peace like no other in our history: the phenomena of nuclear deterrence with the risk of mutually assured destruction has prevented any more weapons from being deployed during wartime since World War II. But how long can peace from mutually assured destruction last? How long can mutually assured destruction itself last? This essay will detail how nuclear weapons changed our world, how we currently protect ourselves from nuclear weapons, and how we might change our idea of protection in the future.

In the past:

World War II was the last war directly fought between world powers. The advent of nuclear weapons signaled the end of the conflict and conventional warfare as we know it. Since then, there has been no direct war between nuclear capable countries, due to the threat of mutually assured destruction. This is possible by what is known as second strike capability, the capability to launch nuclear weapons even if attacked first. Therefore, most nation-states are very secretive about their nuclear programs (besides their existence), hiding them underground, in submarines, and in planes to protect them in case of an attack. Following World War II, the only countries with nuclear weapons were the USA and Soviet Union, and the only nuclear threat came from these two countries. At the height of the cold war, there were thousands of warheads between the two countries. They realized that either party could totally obliterate the other even if attacked first, which led to the uneasy policy of peace due to nuclear deterrence between the two superpowers. Neither the USA or the Soviet Union could attack the other without fear of being bombed themselves. This informal understanding continues to date.

In the present:

The situation has become more complicated through the years as nuclear proliferation has occurred, and more countries have developed or obtained nuclear weapons. From the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the USA, Russia, UK, France, and China have declared their nuclear weapons.

Additionally, India and Pakistan are known to have nuclear weapons. Israel and North Korea are also strongly suspected of having nuclear weapons. As there are potentially 9 countries that can begin a nuclear war, peace is less assured as any one of them could spark a nuclear war that could destroy the world. The most significant development besides nuclear proliferation is the increased computerization and automation of the nuclear systems.

Faults and errors in computerized early warning systems can cause accidental launches. For example, the 1995 Norwegian Incident over a scientific rocket launch by the USA and Norway. Although Russia was earlier notified of the launch, the information was not given to their nuclear command and contemporary president of Russia, Boris Yeltsin, had to seriously decide whether to "retaliate" or not. In 1979, a training program was accidentally launched and caused computers at NORAD headquarters to display warnings of Soviet nuclear attack. US nuclear bombers prepared for takeoff and leaders convened to discuss a response. US State Department advisor Marshal Shulman said, "false alerts of this kind are not a rare occurrence". An incident of this kind happening in any nuclear country could have worldwide consequences if it is not handled appropriately.

In the future:

In the future, this landscape could change further. Threats of cyberwarfare are more common by the day. The Stuxnet worm was able to effectively cause damage to Iran’s nuclear program in 2010. In 2016, malware was found in Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany. Similar malware could infect nuclear launch sites, and possibly even cause an unauthorized launch. Although there are safeguards such as the Permissive Active Link, special physical and computer locks installed into nuclear weapons that can prevent unauthorized arming or activation, there is always a possibility that they can be breached, even in air-gapped systems. Building better security software and increasing security awareness can help the situation but not completely solve it. Deterrence cannot prevent against launches by irrational actors.

The main development in the future, could be useable missile defense systems. In their current state today, it is very unlike they would be of any real protection. For example, the Strategic Defense Initiative, a program created by Reagan to nullify the threat of nuclear weapons (though arguably more to be used as a bargaining chip against the Soviet Union), which never brought down a single missile. However, an effective missile defense systems could change the paradigm of nuclear peace that we enjoy now by removing the assurance of mutual destruction. Indeed, some countries clearly believe this is the case, as the USA has continued to fund research into Missile Defense systems, causing the creation of Aegis and other systems. Russia recently announced a new missile called Avangard, specifically designed to fly at Mach 27 and turn sharply specifically to avoid any type of interception. As computers become faster and data processing becomes better, we should continue to work on a better missile defense system as this is the only real defense against a nuclear attack, especially if there is ever an attack by an irrational or non-state actor. This is even more relevant as more countries are likely to develop nuclear weapons in the future, making them much easier to acquire. It only takes 1 launch by some actor to set off a global chain reaction of retaliatory launches. We have peace now, but it cannot last forever. Our safety will depend on missile defense systems in the future, and we must be ready for when it does.