Probabilistic Knowledge Representation and Updating
Prior probabilities:
- Prob(TB) (probability that population as a whole, or population under observation, has the disease)
Conditional probabilities:
- Prob(TB | cough)
- updated belief in TB given a symptom
- Prob(TB | test=neg)
- updated belief based on possibly imperfect sensor
- Prob(“TB tomorrow” | “treatment today”)
- reasoning about a treatment (action)
The basic update:
- Prob(H) ? Prob(H|E1) ? Prob(H|E1, E2) ? ...