Probability As “Softened Logic”

• “Statements of fact”

  • Prob(TB) = .06

• Soft rules

  • TB ? cough
  • Prob(cough | TB) = 0.9

• (Causative versus diagnostic rules)

  • Prob(cough | TB) = 0.9
  • Prob(TB | cough) = 0.05

• Probabilities allow us to reason about

  • Possibly inaccurate observations
  • Omitted qualifications to our rules that are (either epistemological or practically) necessary

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