1	The IT Workforce Ed Lazowska IT & Public Policy Autumn 2004
2	Topics Characterizing the IT workforce Size of the IT workforce Recent trends in IT workforce size Longer-term trends in IT workforce size Education for IT jobs Positioning of Washington State Positioning of the US as a whole H-1B’s, worldwide sourcing A few miscellaneous thoughts
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5	Professional Level IT Workers Hold a Wide Array of Science, Engineering and Other Degrees
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7	IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Employment, Numbers
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11	Change in IT Occupational Employment Number, 2001-2002
12	Unemployment Rates
13	Aggregate IT Employment 1999-2002
14	Occupational Growth Rates IT vs. All Occupations
15	Recent Occupational Growth Growth in Numbers
16	IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Total Job Openings
17	Occupational Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings (new jobs plus net replacements) 2002-2012
18	The Market Perspective Degree Production vs. Projected Job Openings
19	Education for the “innovation economy” Once upon a time, the “content” of the goods we produced was largely physical
20	"Then we transitioned to goods..." Then we transitioned to goods whose “content” was a balance of physical and intellectual
21	"In the “innovation economy..." In the “innovation economy,” the content of goods is almost entirely intellectual rather than physical
22	"Every state consumes “innovation..." Every state consumes “innovation economy” goods Information technology, biotechnology, telecommunications, … We produce these goods! Over the past 20 years, the Puget Sound region has had the fastest pro-rata growth in the nation in the “high tech services” sector
23	What kind of education is needed to produce “innovation economy” goods? National and regional studies conclude the 3/4^ths of the jobs in software require a Bachelors degree or greater (and it’s highly competitive among those with this credential!)
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30	"Washington is all geared up..." Washington is all geared up to fight the last war!
31	More broadly (some data is not current, but nothing much has changed) Bachelors degrees, nationwide, 1997: 222,000 in business 125,000 in the social sciences 105,000 in education
32	"China granted only 1/4 as..." China granted only 1/4 as many Bachelors degrees in 1997 as did the US (325,000 vs. 1.2M)
33	U.S. Lags Other Nations in Share of 24-Year-Olds With Natural Science, Engineering Degrees
34	"What’s the fastest-growing undergraduate major..." What’s the fastest-growing undergraduate major in America today?
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36	"At the doctoral level (..." At the doctoral level (also 1997): 40,000 J.D.’s
37	Share of Total S&E Degrees Earned by Non-Resident Aliens, by Degree Level
38	H-1B visas Roughly 20K engineers/year enter on H-1B’s Total IT + engineering workforce: ~5M
39	Worldwide sourcing It works both ways! The US ran a $60B surplus in services trade in 2003 – it has grown every year since 1996 Even at its peak, in 2001, trade-related layoffs represented 0.6% of unemployment Fewer than 200K jobs have shifted abroad in each of the past 3 years, but 15M jobs have been lost in the US in each recent year BLS projects a US workforce of 165.3M in 2012; Forrester Research projects 3.3M jobs outsourced by 2015
40	"Bill Wulf," Bill Wulf, President, National Academy of Engineering: If [managers] can get comparable talent at 1/5^th the cost in India, and if the start-up cost is small, and if the cost stays small, and if the productivity per unit cost is high enough, and if they can manage from 10,000 miles and 12 times zones away – then they will outsource, and they should! The problem is the nation’s access to engineering talent; and it is not the individual manager in an individual company that is responsible for solving that problem.
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