Basics

• Random variable takes values

  • Cavity: yes or no

• Joint Probability Distribution

• Unconditional probability (“prior probability”)

  • P(A)
  • P(Cavity) = 0.1

• Conditional Probability

  • P(A|B)
  • P(Cavity | Toothache) = 0.8

• Bayes Rule

  • P(B|A) = P(A|B)P(B) / P(A)

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