Bayes’ Rule

E: Some evidence exists, i.e., a particular condition is true

H: some hypothesis is true.

P(E|H) = probability of E given H.

P(E|~H) = probability of E given not H.

P(H) = probability of H, independent of E.

P(E|H) P(H)

P(H|E) = -----------------

P(E)

P(E) = P(E|H) P(H) + P(E|~H)(1 - P(H))