| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| January 5 |
Overview Reading: BT 1.1, 1.2, 1.6, Intro to Schnapsen, Rules of Schnapsen |
| January 7 |
Counting: product rule, permutations Reading: Safety First (Schnapsen analysis) Trick mechanics |
| January 9 | Counting: combinations |
| January 12 | Counting: complementing, inclusion-exclusion; Intro to probability: probability axioms and corollaries |
| January 14 |
Equiprobable outcomes Reading: BT 1.3 |
| January 16 |
Conditional probability Reading: BT 1.5 |
| January 21 |
Law of Total Probability; Bayes' Theorem Reading: BT 1.4 |
| January 23 |
Independence Reading: BT 2.1-2.3 |
| January 26 |
Random variables Reading: BT 2.4, 2.7 |
| January 28 |
Expectation Reading: Expected Game Points, last year's exercise |
| January 30 | Linearity of expectation |
| February 2 | Variance |
| February 4 | Uniform, Bernoulli, binomial distributions |
| February 6 | Error-correcting codes, Poisson distribution |
| February 11 |
Continuous random variables; uniform distribution Reading: BT 3.1-3.2 |
| February 13 |
Expected value; exponential distributions Reading: BT 3.3 |
| February 18 |
Normal distribution Reading: BT 7.4 |
| February 20 |
Normal approximation of binomial distribution Reading: BT 7.1 |
| February 23 | Central Limit Theorem |
| February 25 | Example of Central Limit Theorem |
| February 27 |
Markov, Chebyshev, and Chernoff inequalities Reading: BT 7.2, 7.5 |
| March 2 |
Law of large numbers Reading: Maximum likelihood estimators |
| March 4 | Maximum likelihood estimators |
| March 6 | Bias |
| March 9 | Confidence intervals |
| March 11 |
Probabilistic algorithms Freivalds' algorithm |
| March 13 | Selected HW8 and final review exercises |